Now of course not all values are set at the same and sometimes there are other factors involved but my hope with this simple example is hopefully it might help some folks in understanding why they feel unlucky in an event or why they keep getting the same rewards from DC chests or why Relics are not coming up as often or any such thing like that.Ĭlick to expand.Should be pretty simple if you have the data in a spreadsheet but yes the ToR conversations can go completely off the rails in trying to explain statistically what is happening lol. You should now see that you will not be guaranteed to get 2 but maybe 5 or 0 and nothing to do with luck. So now pretend it's an Event or a DC chest or whatever and you get 10 tries at something that says 20%. Try it in intervals of 10 tries in a row and sometimes you might get it on the 3rd try, sometimes the 9th, you might even get it on the 1st try and perhaps multiple Ace's. You'll notice as you keep clicking you can go for some time without seeing the Ace. Now, keep clicking the "Again!" button and see how often the Ace comes up. Let us choose the Ace and pretend that is the reward we want and the others are junk prizes. This will represent a 20% chance to get any one card.
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